{"id":63755,"date":"2025-05-26T00:55:01","date_gmt":"2025-05-26T00:55:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/?p=63755"},"modified":"2025-05-26T00:55:05","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T00:55:05","slug":"ieej-predicts-strong-natural-gas-demand-experts-find-it-unrealistic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/ieej-predicts-strong-natural-gas-demand-experts-find-it-unrealistic\/","title":{"rendered":"IEEJ Predicts Strong Natural Gas Demand; Experts Find it Unrealistic"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" class=\"sharethis-inline-share-buttons\" ><\/div>\n<p>The Institute for Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ), an influential Japanese research organisation, forecasts significantly higher <strong>natural gas demand<\/strong>, increased reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and elevated levels of CO\u2082 emissions than comparable scenarios of other organisations. However, an analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics that aims to assess the credibility of IEEJ\u2019s assumptions reveals that they are unrealistic. The latter organisation claims that the IEEJ wants to strengthen the narrative of the Japanese government and industry that fossil fuel investments \u2014 both in infrastructure and imports \u2014 are more important than renewables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ieej-outlook-2025-forecasts-higher-natural-gas-demand-than-iea-and-fossil-fuel-giants-predict\"><strong>IEEJ Outlook 2025 Forecasts Higher Natural Gas Demand than IEA and Fossil Fuel Giants Predict<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/en\/report_detail.php?article_info__id=12114\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IEEJ<\/a> has compiled two trajectories for the future of the energy system \u2014 a &#8220;Reference&#8221; scenario, which assumes that current trends in low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency continue at the same pace, and an &#8220;Advanced Technologies&#8221; (AdvTech) scenario, which assumes maximum implementation of policies for energy security and climate action and further renewable cost reductions.&nbsp;According to Zero Carbon Analytics, the two scenarios are broadly comparable to alternatives from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/data-product\/world-energy-outlook-2024-extended-dataset\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">International Energy Agency<\/a> (IEA), <a href=\"https:\/\/corporate.exxonmobil.com\/sustainability-and-reports\/global-outlook#ExploretheGlobalOutlook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Exxon<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bp.com\/en\/global\/corporate\/energy-economics\/energy-outlook\/energy-outlook-downloads.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BP<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on current trends (Reference scenario), the <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/en\/report_detail.php?article_info__id=12114\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IEEJ<\/a> estimates that gas demand in 2050 will be 20% higher than the comparable scenario of the IEA. The forecasts are even more optimistic than those of oil and gas majors like ExxonMobil and BP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21252204?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21252204\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEEJ\u2019s bullish forecasts are based on an increased use of natural gas in the power sector. Based on current trends, the institute projects demand to jump by approximately 950 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually between 2030 and 2050.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21163066?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21163066\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>For reference, the IEA expects it to fall by 117 bcm over the same period. The IEEJ\u2019s scenarios for 2050 see gas making up 25% (Reference) and 15% (AdvTech) of electricity generation compared to 11% and 5% in the IEA\u2019s forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-bar-chart-race\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21265354?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21265354\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"bar-chart-race visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-bar-chart-race\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21265476?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21265476\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"bar-chart-race visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEEJ\u2019s energy transition scenario forecasts 26% higher fossil fuel demand in 2050 than the comparable IEA scenario. At the same time, it envisions just 10% higher emissions due to the massive growth in the deployment of CCS, which seems unrealistic considering that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/2308935-most-schemes-to-capture-and-reuse-carbon-actually-increase-emissions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">scientists<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/ieefa.org\/resources\/why-carbon-capture-and-storage-not-solution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">analysts<\/a> find that the technology is actually more likely to increase, rather than reduce, emissions. As per the IEEJ&#8217;s projections, all new thermal power plants post-2030 with options to store carbon will be equipped with CCS. As a result, it forecasts over six times higher amounts of thermal power with CCS by 2050 (1,137 GW) compared to the IEA (183 GW). However, this also seems unrealistic, considering that, according to Zero Carbon Analytics, as of 2023, only 0.11 GW of thermal power capacity with CCS was in place worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21297038?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21297038\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Southeast Asian region, the differences between the comparable IEEJ and IEA scenarios are even more dramatic. As per the Reference and AdvTech scenarios, Southeast Asia\u2019s natural gas demand will jump 1.7 and 3.5 times higher than the IEA\u2019s corresponding scenarios. In fact, compared to its 2024 analysis, the IEEJ increased its 2050 natural gas demand forecast for the region by close to 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, the IEEJ\u2019s current trends scenario sees natural gas accounting for over twice the share in the electricity mix, compared to the IEA\u2019s estimates, at the expense of renewables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21192408?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21192408\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEEJ\u2019s energy transition scenario predicts that gas will generate over 8 times more electricity than the comparable IEA scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-bar-chart-race\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21266785?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21266785\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"bar-chart-race visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-bar-chart-race\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21266810?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21266810\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"bar-chart-race visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ieej-forecasts-gloomy-clean-energy-prospects-and-undermines-renewables-competitiveness-with-natural-gas\"><strong>IEEJ Forecasts Gloomy Clean Energy Prospects and Undermines Renewables\u2019 Competitiveness<\/strong> <strong>With Natural Gas<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>After comparing the current trends and scenarios of the IEEJ and the IEA, Zero Carbon Analytics reveals that the latter expects a 17-fold growth in solar energy between 2022 and 2050 compared to just an eightfold jump within the Japanese institute\u2019s model. Furthermore, the IEA projects a 23-fold increase in the energy transition scenarios compared to IEEJ\u2019s 13-fold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21192786?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21192786\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>For wind power, the IEEJ envisions close to two-thirds lower growth in the current trends scenarios and one-third less in the energy transition scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21283823?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21283823\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Both the IEEJ and IEA forecast that renewable electricity will be significantly cheaper than fossil fuels in Asia and expect solar to be the cheapest energy source. Still, the Japanese institute\u2019s projections undermine renewables&#8217; economic viability and competitiveness against natural gas. Zero Carbon Analytics notes that the IEEJ assumes solar and wind to be between 56% and 108% more expensive than the IEA&#8217;s estimates, which are also very similar to BloombergNEF\u2019s conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, the Japanese institute forecasts 15-38% higher costs for gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS) than the IEA and BNEF\u2019s forecasts for gas without CCS, which doesn\u2019t align with scientific research. According to one recent study, adding CCS to a gas power plant could increase generation costs substantially, in some cases by up to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2352484724005079#sec0060:~:text=Fig.%202.%20Sensitivity%20of%20NGCC%20without%20CO2%20capture%20and%20retrofit%20plant%E2%80%99s%20LCOE%20with%20CO2%20Capture%20with%20respect%20to%20gas%20prices%20and%20CUF.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">70-100%<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21193778?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21193778\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, while the <a href=\"https:\/\/iea.blob.core.windows.net\/assets\/fb481b31-df88-4f2c-a435-c8b075e992be\/WorldEnergyOutlook2024.pdf#page=125\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IEA<\/a> assumes grid modernisation and flexibility can enable greater renewable energy integration, displacing natural gas, the IEEJ anticipates that grid and location constraints will stall renewable uptake. The institute also advocates prioritising thermal power as a backup to renewables rather than using battery storage and managing demand response, claiming it is \u201cdesirable to not depend excessively on renewables\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Zero Carbon Analytics finds that gas will remain much more expensive than solar and wind power across Southeast Asia by the 2030s and 2040s. While gas costs would remain constant until 2050, solar prices will decline gradually through 2050, with onshore wind declining and then stabilising from 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed\" data-src=\"story\/2848110?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/story\/2848110\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-natural-gas-demand-forecast-and-a-future-of-high-emissions\"><strong>Natural Gas Demand Forecast and a Future of High Emissions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEEJ&#8217;s two scenarios indicate devastating outcomes for the global efforts to tame the climate crisis. In the reference scenario, CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions within the energy sector would decline by just <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/data\/12114.pdf#page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">4% by 2050<\/a>, which signals a temperature increase of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/syr\/downloads\/report\/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf#page=50\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.5\u00b0C to 3\u00b0C<\/a>. Zero Carbon Analytics notes that these are the worst emissions level results compared to the IEA\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/global-energy-and-climate-model\/stated-policies-scenario-steps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Stated Policies Scenario<\/a> and even the <a href=\"https:\/\/corporate.exxonmobilresources.com\/what-we-do\/energy-supply\/global-outlook.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ExxonMobil Global Outlook<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bp.com\/en\/global\/corporate\/energy-economics\/energy-outlook.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BP\u2019s Current Trajectory<\/a> scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEEJ\u2019s AdvTech scenario suggests a 62% drop in CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions by 2050, which would translate into 2\u00b0C of warming. Even the more ambitious scenario of the Japanese institute is still incomparable to the net zero scenarios of the IEA, BP or Shell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/21284842?1410215\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/21284842\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEEJ\u2019s analysis reveals a preference for natural gas as the backbone of the energy systems across Southeast Asia instead of renewables. The research institute notes that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/data\/11456.pdf#page=167\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the appropriate share of renewables is estimated at about 60%<\/a>\u201d, beyond which it claims that uptake becomes costly. The proposed alternative is <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/data\/11456.pdf#page=167\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">thermal power<\/a>. However, according to Zero Carbon Analytics, the suggestion contradicts the findings of reputable organisations like the IEA and BloombergNEF, which consider renewables the cheaper and more suitable solution for Southeast Asia\u2019s energy system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-japanese-industry-behind-favourable-natural-gas-forecasts\"><strong>Japanese Industry Behind Favourable Natural Gas Forecasts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The IEEJ provides energy sector analysis and recommendations for Japan and the Asia-Pacific region. For example, it played a leading role in designing <a href=\"https:\/\/powerdivision.portal.gov.bd\/sites\/default\/files\/files\/powerdivision.portal.gov.bd\/page\/4f81bf4d_1180_4c53_b27c_8fa0eb11e2c1\/IEPMP%202023.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bangladesh&#8217;s national power development plan<\/a>, which has natural gas as the biggest power source by 2050.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The institute was founded in 1966 by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (METI) before becoming an independent organisation in 2012. However, it retains its close links with the Japanese government. The current <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/en\/press\/president\/terazawa_bio_en2107.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">chairman and CEO<\/a> has previously served as a vice minister and director-general of METI, while some of its executive officers have also <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/en\/about\/executive.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">held positions<\/a> there in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, the IEEJ\u2019s operations are funded by <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/en\/about\/purpose.html#:~:text=as%20a%20non%2Dprofit%20organization%20using%20funds%20from%20over%20100%20member%2Dcompanies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">over 100 companies<\/a>, indicating the institute\u2019s strong connections with Japanese industry. However, a precise list of the companies and their role within the institute isn\u2019t disclosed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Zero Carbon Analytics, the IEEJ has a history of forecasting very high levels of natural gas demand. As the <a href=\"https:\/\/eneken.ieej.or.jp\/en\/report_detail.php?article_info__id=12114\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2025 Outlook<\/a> proves, its forecasts exceed even those of oil and gas industry giants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The projections fit the long-established policies of the Japanese government and industry for disregarding renewables in favour of natural gas and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.transitionzero.org\/insights\/japans-toxic-narrative-on-ammonia-cofiring\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">fossil fuel-based solutions<\/a>, evident also from the <a href=\"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/japans-updated-ndc-plans-fall-short-of-expectations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weak commitments<\/a> in Japan&#8217;s updated NDC. However, experts find those technologies more expensive, polluting and threatening to energy security.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-japan-developed-liquefied-natural-gas-market-across-asia\"><strong>Japan Developed Liquefied Natural Gas Market Across Asia<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the<a href=\"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/climate-impacts-of-false-solutions-on-japan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Green Transformation Strategy (GX)<\/a> and the<a href=\"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/how-azec-and-japan-are-pushing-fossil-fuel-based-solutions-in-asia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Asia Zero Emissions Community (AZEC)<\/a>, the Japanese government and companies have been heavily developing the LNG market across Asia, investing in import terminals, power plants and pipelines. Research by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketforces.org.au\/campaigns\/asia\/japan-trading-houses-report-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Forces<\/a> reveals that Japanese trading houses plan to build 8.6 times more gas power than solar and wind combined in South and Southeast Asia, undermining the region\u2019s energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, in some countries, including Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, the Japanese government has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketforces.org.au\/campaigns\/asia\/japan-trading-houses-report-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">heavily influenced<\/a> domestic energy policies to ensure <a href=\"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/japan-influenced-strategies-trap-asian-nations-in-fossil-fuels\/\">gas and LNG<\/a>, and not renewables, remain the priority. As previously <a href=\"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/asean-countries-need-to-prioritise-renewable-energy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reported<\/a>, experts fear these strategies will worsen existing problems that some South and Southeast Asian nations suffer from. These include further slowing down decarbonisation, fueling the climate crisis, exacerbating poor air quality and the associated adverse health impacts and elevating energy security and economic risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Japanese government recently promised US President Donald Trump that it would <a href=\"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/japan-to-buy-record-amounts-of-lng-from-us-after-trump-and-ishiba-meet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">buy record amounts of LNG<\/a> in a bid to evade tariffs. According to<a href=\"https:\/\/oilchange.org\/news\/reactive-u-s-and-japan-agree-to-new-lng-exports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Hiroki Osada<\/a>, a campaigner at Friends of the Earth Japan, although the government claims LNG will strengthen energy security, in reality, it is exporting it to other countries. \u201cThe volume of reselling is actually more than the biggest LNG exporter, Australia,\u201d the expert notes. The main target markets are <a href=\"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/lng-demand-decline-in-japan-to-cause-oversupply-through-2030\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Southeast Asian nations<\/a>, where renewables are already<a href=\"https:\/\/www.irena.org\/News\/pressreleases\/2022\/Sep\/ASEAN-Can-Cover-Two-Thirds-of-Energy-Demand-with-Renewables\"> the cheapest source<\/a> of new power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/lobbymap.org\/influencer\/Japan-Business-Federation-Keidanren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">InfluenceMap<\/a>, the Japanese Business Federation has a history of lobbying \u201cnegatively on many strands of climate change regulation in Japan.\u201d The experts note that it still remains \u201coppositional towards regulated carbon taxes and the phaseout of thermal power\u201d and actively advocates investing in LNG and fossil fuel-based technologies like hydrogen and ammonia co-firing. Furthermore, the CEO of JERA has previously <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-11-09\/asia-needs-gas-as-bridge-to-cleaner-future-says-japan-s-jera\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">described<\/a> supporting the region&#8217;s economic growth with intermittent renewable sources as \u201chard\u201d and urged the need to use gas as a transitional fuel. The CEO of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mhi.com\/finance\/library\/annual\/pdf\/report_2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">branded<\/a> a renewables-led transition in Asia as \u201cunrealistic\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-bottom-line\"><strong>The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Japanese government\u2019s climate inertia, combined with the corporate sector\u2019s enduring preference for fossil fuel technologies, raises questions about the credibility of the IEEJ\u2019s natural gas forecasts, especially considering they contradict the findings of the IEA, BloombergNEF and even oil and gas majors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It remains unclear whether the IEEJ\u2019s projections were intended to provide an objective market outlook based on expertise or convince prospective target markets for Japanese LNG exports of the viability of natural gas and the lack of economic reasoning behind investing in renewables. However, there is sufficient evidence for everyone to draw their own conclusions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The IEEJ\u2019s forecasts significantly overestimate natural gas demand and underestimate renewable potential, driven by close ties to Japanese industry and fossil fuel interests. Its projections also rely on unrealistic assumptions about CCS and emissions reductions, contradicting scientific consensus on clean energy costs and feasibility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":63763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,357],"tags":[158,452],"hashtags":[],"class_list":["post-63755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-features","category-natural-gas","tag-japan","tag-natural-gas"],"acf":{"custom_author_name":"","article_pdf_file":false,"poll_vote":0,"manage_the_date":"global","show_in_lastest_from_the_region":"0","order":"","short_desc":"The IEEJ\u2019s forecasts significantly overestimate natural gas demand and underestimate renewable potential, driven by close ties to Japanese industry and fossil fuel interests. Its projections also rely on unrealistic assumptions about CCS and emissions reductions, contradicting scientific consensus on clean energy costs and feasibility."},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63755"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63755\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64526,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63755\/revisions\/64526"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63755"},{"taxonomy":"hashtags","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hashtags?post=63755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}