{"id":8478,"date":"2021-11-24T02:48:03","date_gmt":"2021-11-24T02:48:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/?p=8478"},"modified":"2023-02-08T04:09:25","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T04:09:25","slug":"asia-pacific-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energytracker.asia\/asia-pacific-energy-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"The Spotlight on the Asia-Pacific’s Energy Transitioning to Net-Zero Emissions"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In my book Asia’s Energy Revolution<\/em>, I pointed out that the Asia-Pacific region has unique and salient features that make its energy transition to net-zero emissions unique. This includes two fundamentals and two transformations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first fundamental feature of Asia-Pacific’s energy transition<\/strong> is that Asia is the largest electricity consuming region globally<\/a> by an extensive margin. In 2020, it produced 12,961 TWh of electricity, about 48% of the world’s total, rocketing upwards from 2010’s share of around 38%. The only considerable competition came from North America with 5,221 TWh or about 19% of the globe’s total. Asia’s electricity growth will continue to ascend over the next 30 years from significant population and economic development. Much of this growth will come from developing countries, where they will be producing almost nine-tenths of generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second fundamental feature of Asia-Pacific’s energy transition<\/em> is that only a small percentage of power markets are liberalised to date. However, many are making good progress in opening up their energy markets in the region and the globe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the transformational side, some trends are shifting existing and planned electricity generation towards greener and cleaner sources instead of fossil fuels. These trends are also working collectively with heavy investments into digital technology and solutions at the operational and consumer levels, or “behind-the-meter”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Premises of “Asia\u2019s Energy Revolution \u2013 China\u2019s Role and New Opportunities as Markets Transform and Digitalise<\/em>“. Source: actE<\/a>
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Green Energy\u2019s Growth on the Upside will be a Surprise<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The most recent forecast for Asia’s electricity generation growth was published in October 2021 by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency estimates electricity to grow by 2.8% by 2050, reaching a total of 24,055 TWh. Clean energy is expected to play a massive role in this growth, making up between 60-82% of the total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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IEA Electricity Generation Forecasts for Asia Pacific<\/em>. Source: World Energy Outlook 2021<\/a>.
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But the rate of growth could be stronger than the higher-end of the IEA estimate, with India and China, and other markets boosting the numbers. In China, on the highest end, its 15,947 TWh could be 1,000 – 2,000 TWh higher given the countries aggressive electrification ambitions, especially in electric mobility. The 5,812 TWh higher-end estimate assumes that its economic development will lag for India, which doesn’t seem to be the case. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For some of the other large power markets in developing Asia, the increases are likely to be much higher using simple multipliers like per-capita kWh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n